The performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and artificial neural network (ANN) models in simulating hydrologic response was assessed in an agricultural watershed in southeastern Pennsylvania. All of the performance evaluation measures including Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (E) and coefficient of determination (R^sup 2^) suggest that the ANN monthly predictions were closer to the observed flows than the monthly predictions from the SWAT model. More specifically, monthly streamflow E and R^sup 2^ were 0.54 and 0.57, respectively, for the SWAT model calibration period, and 0.71 and 0.75, respectively, for the ANN model training period. For the validation period, these values were -0.17 and 0.34 for the SWAT and 0.43 and 0.45 for the ANN model. SWAT model performance was affected by snowmelt events during winter months and by the model's inability to adequately simulate base flows. Even though this and other studies using ANN models suggest that these models provide a viable alternative approach for hydrologic and water quality modeling, ANN models in their current form are not spatially distributed watershed modeling systems. However, considering the promising performance of the simple ANN model, this study suggests that the ANN approach warrants further development to explicitly address the spatial distribution of hydrologic/water quality processes within watersheds.

Watershed hydrology is of central importance to the structure and function of stream ecosystems. Stochastic by nature, streamflow varies over time in response to precipitation and is inherently subject to episodic extremes of high and low flows. Streamflow also varies among watersheds due to complex physiographic, landscape, and disturbance characteristics. Stream organisms are generally well adapted to a range of streamflow conditions but can be strongly affected by extreme flow events. Extreme high flow events can reduce benthic algae abundance (Biggs and Close, 1989) and disrupt benthic macroinvertebrate communities through scouring and bed instability. Low flows can severely stress fish communities and, in extreme cases, may cause changes in local community composition and density. Given the great importance of hydrology to stream ecosystems, it follows that any understanding of ecosystem structure and function in these systems must explicitly account for the effects of flow variability (Poff et al., 1997; Richter et al., 1997). Further, together with sediment loadings from watersheds, streamflow is also a key variable influencing the morphology of stream channels, which in turn determines the physical habitat -the foundation of any stream ecosystem (Leopold et al., 1964).

Given the great importance of hydrology to stream ecosystems, accurate prediction of streamflow is of utmost importance. However, accurate predictions of rainfall-runoff and consequent streamflows from a regional scale watershed are extremely difficult because of tremendous spatial and temporal variability of watershed characteristics and weather patterns and an incomplete understanding of complex underlying physical processes. The traditional approach to hydrologie modeling is to link several detailed mechanistic, quasi-mechanistic, or empirical submodels of system processes (e.g., evapotranspiration, infiltration, percolation, flow routing) in an effort to build a process-based model of the complete hydrologie system such as Hydrologie Simulation ProgramFORTRAN (HSPF) (Bicknell et al., 2001) and SWAT (Neitsch et al., 2001a). Because of the enormous spatial scale of the system and the complex, poorly understood processes and their interactions, alternatives to traditional process-based modeling approaches must be developed. Further, process-based models are usually difficult to implement because of their high complexity and massive input data requirements, much of which are unavailable for significant portions of any regional scale watershed. Such models also require considerable technical expertise to implement and use and therefore are not suitable for most watershed managers. Moreover, inadequate scientific understanding of underlying processes implies that structural (or knowledge) uncertainty will be substantial in such models, imposing severe constraints on efforts to reduce prediction uncertainty.

In response to these concerns and the demonstrated success of ANNs applied to complex problems in a variety of disciplines (e.g., physics, biomedical engineering, electrical engineering, computer science, robotics, and image processing), several researchers in the hydrologie community are attempting to use ANN as an alternative modeling tool for streamflow predictions. Maier and Dandy (2000) provide a review of neural network models for predicting and forecasting various water resources variables. For example, Karunanithi et al. (1994), Minns and Hall (1996), Braddock et al. (1998), Dawson and Wilby (1998), Anmala et al. (2000), Gupta et al. (2000), Salas et al. (2000), and Zhang and Govindaraju (2000, 2003) used various forms of ANNs for rainfall-runoff modeling. A number of researchers also compared performance of ANNs with other empirical approaches. Anmala et al. (2000) compared the performance of various ANN architectures with empirical approaches such as complex time series and multivariate time series in three Kansas watersheds and found ANNs and recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to perform as well or better. Hsu et al. (1995) found ANN performance to be better than a conceptual Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model and an autoregressive moving average with exogenous variables (ARMAX) time series approach in a subbasin of the Mississippi River basin for daily streamflow predictions. Fernando and Jayawardena (1998) found a radial basis function network (a type of ANN) to work better than the ARMAX approach. Tokar and Johnson (1999) found ANNs to be superior to simple conceptual models in the Little Patuxent River basin, Maryland.

Diabetes is a chronic disease affecting as many as 16 million Americans, half of whom do not know they have it. It is the 5th leading cause of death in the United States. Diabetes is the leading cause of blindness, renal failure, and amputation in the U. S., and is associated with a range of complications, including heart attacks, strokes, amputations and loss of vision. It is also the leading cause of new cases of blindness among adults 20-74 years old. Diabetics have up to a 400% greater chance of heart attack or stroke. Could a natural health remedy for diabetes turn the tide?

Researchers are in agreement that the theory of oxidative stress is central to the understanding of diabetes. Since diabetes is on such a dramatic increase in the United States, it's helpful to understand what diabetes is, and what to look for. Diabetes mellitus is a nutritional disorder, and is characterized by an abnormally high level of blood glucose and the excretion of the excess glucose into the urine. Diabetes is known to cause swelling of the ankles and feet by damaging small blood vessels (microangiopathy). Fortunately, diabetes has been clinically proven to be curable in over 98% of patients with Type 2 diabetes, 64% with Type 1 diabetes and can be controlled with nutrition and supplements. Any one of these could be the next natural health remedy for diabetes. Listed below are natural supplements that can help reduce blood sugar.

Type 2 diabetes is a condition characterized by high blood sugar resulting from an impaired response to insulin. Insulin is a hormone secreted by the pancreas in response to increased levels of glucose (sugar) in the blood and is released to regulate the amount of glucose in the bloodstream. It is required by the body to convert sugar, starches and other foods into energy. Insulin resistance is understood to be a major contributor to the onset of diabetes. Resistance to insulin appears to have a major effect on heart disease. To be a natural health remedy for diabetes, a supplement must be shown to reduce blood sugar levels.

Diabetics are chronically deficient in both vitamins and minerals. At the least, they need to add a good quality multi-vitamin and mineral supplement to their diet. Diabetic neuropathy is a painful nerve disorder resulting from reduced blood flow and subsequent oxygen-deprivation of the limbs or organs. It was reversed in studies conducted by seven medical centers. Diabetics are at much greater risk for heart attacks, high blood pressure, and strokes. Diabetics are not necessarily prone to zinc deprivation, but zinc supplements help control blood sugar levels. Zinc, therefore, could be a natural health remedy for diabetes. A magnesium deficiency is a predictor of diabetes; diabetics both need more magnesium and lose more magnesium than most people. Marine phyto-plankton reduces the amount of sugar present in our bloodstream. This results in the reduction of the myriad complications seen in diabetics (eye problems, ulcers in extremities, heart disease, strokes, hormone problems, neurologic and immune system dysfunction, etc. Marine phyto-plankton also passes the test as a natural health remedy for diabetes.

Natural Remedies

Millions have discovered the healing power of natural remedies and supplements and are turning to vitamins, minerals and herbs as a natural health remedy for diabetes. When considering using any of these natural diabetes remedies, it would be wise for you to consult with your primary care provider.

Reported in the British Journal of Nutrition was a four-week study indicating that flax oil was beneficial in helping to regulate blood glucose levels in diabetics. Contemporary research has also found that spices including cinnamon, garlic, fenugreek, gymnema, bitter melon and caper have the potential to be an effective natural health remedy for diabetes. Diabetics report their blood sugar level improved simply by taking cinnamon on a daily basis. One human study published in Diabetes Care looked at 60 people with type 2 diabetes, 30 men and 30 women with an average age of 52. The results of this study suggest that the inclusion of cinnamon in the diet of people with type 2 diabetes will reduce the risk factors associated with diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. Cinnamon or any of these other spices could turn out to be the best natural health remedy for diabetes.

Contrary to some early concerns, both fish oil and niacin (treatments used for improving triglyceride and cholesterol levels) appear to be safe for people with diabetes. Scientific study has shown the effectiveness of many natural diabetes treatments. Also found in Diabetes Care was a study that confirmed significant progress in insulin sensitivity with chromium present in the body and, in addition, studies have revealed that people with diabetes had low levels of chromium. Also, low magnesium levels may reduce blood glucose control in type 2 diabetes. North American Ginseng, has been shown to be another effective natural health remedy for diabetes.

Research collaboration between Australian, Chinese and Korean scientists at Sydney's Garvan Institute demonstrated that the natural plant product berberine could be a valuable new treatment against type 2 diabetes. Their study, published in the journal Diabetes, found that rats and mice given berberine over three weeks had a 50 per cent drop in blood sugar. It's exciting to see evidence that berberine may be a helpful new natural health remedy for type 2 diabetes. However, despite its widespread use in traditional medicine, it will still have to go through the defined clinical trials process.

Picture a desert. It's hot, the sun is beating down with excessive heat. You're unsure if it's an oasis or a mirage in the distance. You're panting so heavy. Your tongue feels like it's too big for your mouth. You feel as if you haven't had a drink of water in months. You're craving just a sip of water. Do you equate a desert to the inside of your mouth-an unquenchable desire to drink anything and everything in sight?

Well, excess thirst is just one symptom of diabetes mellitus. Before you jump to conclusions and misdiagnose your symptoms, you need to know what to look for. Here's a checklist of the causes of excess thirst. See if any of them describe your insatiable thirst.

-Hormone imbalances. These include high levels of the thyroid hormone.
-Certain drugs or medications. These include antihistamines, caffeine, or alcohol.
-Psychogenic Polydipsia. This is a psychiatric condition causing a person to feel thirsty for no reason at all.
-Increased exercise. This increases the body's water requirements.
-Damage to the hypothalamus, an area of the brain.
-Diabetes insipidus. It is a disease that causes excessive urination that results in dehydration.

All right, you've looked the checklist over and none of the sources described your thirst. Now, you're almost convinced your excess thirst might be a symptom of diabetes. Remember: You need to know what to look for before you misdiagnose yourself with diabetes. There are two sure-fire ways you can find out if you're diabetic or not:

-A blood glucose test is a great way to detect diabetes.
-Schedule a doctor appointment for a proper diagnosis.

So, you've made that dreaded, but important, doctor appointment. Now what? Well, your doctor needs to know several things in order to diagnose you properly. Be prepared to know the answers to the following questions your doctor will ask. It would be helpful if you would jot down some of these answers or some of your concerns before the appointment. It seems it's so easy to forget important things when we go to the doctor's office. Write down a list of the medications you currently take. This is very important information. Don't be afraid to ask your doctor about other symptoms you might be experiencing, too.

-When the problem began.
-What types of liquids you drink.
-What other medical conditions you might have.
-What medications or drugs you may be taking.
-How much you drink each day.
-How often you exercise.
-Whether you feel dehydrated or have a dry mouth.
-Whether your thirst is constant or occurs only at specific times.
-Whether you have increased or decreased the amount of fluids you drink each day.
-Whether your weight has changed drastically.
-Whether you are having any other questionable symptoms.

Ah, the family tree. It's a wonderful thing to know where you've come from. Questions seem to automatically arise when the family tree is brought up. Will I inherit grandma's beautiful hair? Will I inherit grandpa's big chin? Will I inherit Uncle Joe's musical ability? Will I inherit money when Aunt May passes? Okay, that's a different kind of inheritance. Then there are questions that involve your health and expected lifespan.

Knowing your genetic predisposition can be interesting, but it can also be a life-saving experience. If you think you might have the possibility to inherit type 2 diabetes, the information in this article just might save your life! Knowing your family's medical history can only answer half of the question if type 2 diabetes is inherited.

In fact, knowing these health answers will benefit you when you need to visit a health professional because she will ask questions about your family history. Being aware is the best defense you can have at this point. Being ignorant of these needed answers is not going to help you. Knowledge is power when it comes to your health.

So, read up on your family ancestry and get to know them, and yourself, better.

I'm sure you have many questions, so I will answer them in a question and answer format just for you!

How can I find out if I will inherit type 2 diabetes mellitus? There are basically four categories of people who are susceptible to getting type 2 diabetes:

1. People who are over the age of 45.
2. People who are overweight.
3. People who are of African American, Latino/Hispanic American, Native American, Asian American or Pacific Islander descent.
4. People who have a family history of diabetes.

Are there any other ways I can develop type 2 diabetes mellitus? Yes. There are five main reasons why people are diagnosed with type 2 diabetes.

1. Being insulin resistant.
2. Being obese.
3. Living a sedentary lifestyle.
4. Having low HDL cholesterol levels (the good cholesterol) and high triglyceride levels.
5. Having increased occurrences of high blood pressure.

What are some warning signs of diabetes mellitus that I should look out for? There are six common warning signs for you to check if you are pre-diabetic:

1. Blurred vision.
2. Fatigue.
3. Frequent and slow-healing infections.
4. Increased appetite.
5. Increased thirst.
6. Increased urination.

What can I do to prevent myself from getting type 2 diabetes mellitus? There are five simple ways to make sure you don't become a victim of diabetes:

1. Be active every day.
2. Change your diet.
3. Limit soft drinks.
4. Make wise food choices.
5. Take prescribed medications.

Can you sum up the necessary checklist for me to check if I'm susceptible to type 2 diabetes mellitus? Sure. The main causes for type 2 diabetes are:

- Genetics
- Neglected lifestyle
- Sedentary lifestyle
- Unhealthy diet

So, learn about your family tree! It's a fun activity that can save you life. It's your life. No one else can live it.

Everyone is familiar with the comedians who share their "The Top 10". There's nothing sacred in comedy and everything is made fun of. This enjoyable moment of laughter is fleeting, but in real life, some things aren't so funny. Do you want to know "The Top 10" to a healthier you?

The Top 10 Diabetic Kidney Disease Warning Signs.

10. Protein in your urine
9. High blood pressure
8. Leg and/or ankle swelling
7. Frequent bathroom visits at night
6. High levels of creatinine in blood
5. Less or no need for insulin or anti-diabetic medications
4. Sicknesses involving nausea and vomiting
3. Weakness, paleness, or anemia
2. Itching
1. You are not yourself

Even though this devastating disease takes many years to cause health problems, it's still important to know your life can be altered or threatened. Here are a few reasons why diabetic kidney disease can turn your life upside down:

-Your kidneys are no longer able to support you in a reasonably healthy state
-Dialysis or transplantation is needed.
-Your kidneys only function at 10 to 15 percent.
-The usual duration of time between the diagnosis and complete kidney failure is from five to seven years.

It's important you don't self-diagnose yourself. Please see a medical profession for a proper and accurate diagnosis.

There are precautions you can take to avoid diabetic kidney disease. They are nothing different or out of the ordinary for diabetics, and they're as easy as 1 2 3!

1. Monitor of your blood glucose levels.
2. Maintain an awareness of monitoring and controlling your blood pressure at home.
3. Follow your special diet.

Did you know?

-You won't necessarily be diagnosed with diabetic kidney disease if you have a couple of these top ten items. In fact, The American Diabetes Association informs that not all diabetics develop this specific kidney disease. Some factors for kidney failure include genetics, blood pressure, and blood sugar control.

-Diabetic kidney damage rarely occurs in the first 10 years of diabetes, so it may be a mistake to ignore the possibility of getting this kidney disease. Usually 15-25 years will pass before kidney failure occurs for some diabetics.

-Diabetics are more susceptible to acquiring this dreaded disease. But here's the thing, you don't have to get the disease! That's because the better a person keeps their diabetes and blood pressure under control, the lower the chance of getting them getting kidney disease.

Okay, why should you take care of your diabetes? Here are the varying factors:

-As diabetic kidney disease progresses, more albumin seeps into the urine.

-When the albumin in the urine increases, the filtering function begins to drop.

-As kidney damage develops, blood pressure often rises as well.

Start living your life to its fullest with these Top 10 Reasons To Live Life:

10. Your job
9. Your favorite hobby
8. Your favorite sport or activity
7. Your "what I've always wanted to do" list
6. Your pets
5. Your friends
4. Your family
3. Your spouse
2. Your children
1. Yourself